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What is “trending” – anyway?

Source: Gartner (August 2015)

The report “Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies” – every year’s desperately expected Gartner report about what’s trending in IT – has been out now for a few weeks. Time to bend over it and analyze the most important messages:

1. Evolution

Gartner continues to categorize technologies on the hype cycle by their model of “business eras” (see my post about last year’s Hype Cycle for more details on that). The technologies analyzed for this year’s report are claimed to belong to the last 3 stages of this model: “Digital Marketing”, “Digital Business” and “Autonomous”. Little has changed within the most important technologies supporting these changes:

  • “Internet of Things” is still on its peak
  • “Wearable User Interfaces” has obviously been exchanged by just the term “Wearables” (which makes total sense)
  • “Speech-to-Speech Translation” has advanced beyond its peak
  • “Autonomous Vehicles” is probably the currently most-hyped area around Digital Business

2. Revolution

However, there’s a significant change in the world of technologies to be seen this year: While the plateau of productivity was pretty crowded last year with all sorts of 3D, Analytics and Social stuff (like streams, e.g.), this year’s Hype Cycle doesn’t show much in that area. Which actually proves nothing less than us living in an era of major disruption. Formerly hyped technologies like “Cloud” have vanished from the graph – they’ve become commodity. New stuff like all-things digital, “Cryptocurrencies” or “Machine Learning” are still far from any maturity. So, it’s a great time for re-shaping IT – let’s go for it!

Still, besides that, there remain some questions:

  • Why is “Hybrid Cloud” not moving forward, while “Cloud” is long gone from the Hype Cycle and CIOs are mainly – according to experience with my customers – looking for adopting cloud in a hybrid way? Is there still too little offer from the vendors? Are IT architects still not able to consume hybrid cloud models in a sufficiently significant way? Personally, I suspect “Hybrid” to have further advanced towards productivity than is claimed here; it’s just not that much talked about.
  • Why has Gartner secretly dropped “Software Defined Anything” (it was seen on the rise last year)? All that can be found on this year’s Hype Cycle is “Software-Defined Security”. While I agree, that in low-level infrastructure design the trend of software-defining components co-addresses important aspects of security, “Software-Defined Anything” has a much broader breadth into how IT will be changed in the next couple of years by programmers of any kind and languages of many sorts.
  • IoT Platforms has been introduced newly. With a 5-10 years adoption time? Really? Gartner, i know businesses working on that right now; I know vendors shaping their portfolio into this direction at awesome pace. I doubt this timeframe thoroughly.

3. and More

What’s, though, really important with this year’s Hype Cycle is the concentration of technologies that address “biology” in any sense. Look at the rising edge of the graph and collect what’s hyped there. We got:

  • Brain Computer Interface
  • Human Augmentation
  • 3D Bioprinting Systems
  • Biochips
  • or Bioacoustic Sensing

Not to mention “Smart Robots” and “Connected Homes” … Technologies like these will shape our future life. And it cannot be overestimated how drastically this change will affect us all – even if many of these technologies are still seen with a 5-10 years adoption time until they reach production maturity (however: it wouldn’t be the first time that a timeframe on the Hype Cycle need revision after a year of increased insight).

 

While reading a lot of comments on the Hype Cycle these days, I also fell upon “the five most over-hyped technologies” on venturebeat.com: The author, Chris O’Brien, takes a humorous view on some of the “peaked” technologies on the graph (Autonomous vehicles, self-service Analytics, IoT, Speech-to-speech translation and Machine Learning) – and shares a couple of really useful arguments on why the respective technologies will not be adopted that fast.

I can agree with most of O’Brien’s arguments – however: while some of the things-based stuff invented might be of limited applicability or use (connected forks? huh?), the overall meaningfulness of what “Digital Business” will bring to us all is beyond doubt. The question – as so often before – is not whether we’ll use all that new stuff to come, but whether we’ll be educated enough to use it to our benefit … ?

If you got questions and opinions of your own on that – or if you can answer some of my questions above – please, drop a comment! 🙂

The input for this post, the “Gartner’s 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies” is published in the Gartner Newsroom

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Are you outdated?

The Gartner Hype Cycle 2014 special report is out

So – here it is: Gartner’s assessment of emerging technologies for 2014. And it’s the first time in years, that I haven’t really anything substantial to requery with it. However, two things are worth mentioning:

Cloud Computing’s disillusionment

It’s “The End of the Cloud as we know it“, I said, recently. Gartner – in quite a similar way – sees The Cloud entering the trough of disillusionment with many signs of fatigue, partly accompanied by rampant “cloud washing” but also driven by many – if not all – vendors offering a Cloud Strategy although “many aren’t cloud-centric and some of their cloud strategies are in name only“. The early promises of massive cost savings are finally worn out for the benefit of more realistic advantages with a move into the cloud. And Gartner appreciates that Cloud continues to be one of the most hyped topics in IT history with organizations that develop a true cloud strategy focussing on the real benefits such as agility, speed, time to market and innovation.

Journey into the Digital Age

However, what’s far more important and interesting than the Hype Cycle itself is their publication of the “Journey into the Digital Age” which comes – according to Gartner – with 6 business era models. These models – alongside their respective driving technologies – characterize the focus and outcome of organizations operating within each of those eras. Dividing lines between them are

  • the “Web” before which the only relevant era was “Analog” characterized by CRM and ERP as the most important emerging technologies and
  • the “Nexus of Forces” (mobile, social, cloud and information) which seperates “Web” (as an era), “E-Business” and “Digital Marketing” from “Digital Business” and “Autonomous”

While the era of “Digital Marketing” is mostly what we see with innovative organizations these days, it is the last 2 eras that seperate the latter from the real innovators and the founders of the next age of IT (claimed by many to be called “Industry 4.0”):

  • Digital Business – mainly driven by how the “Internet of Things” changes the way to do business and to interact with customers – will be the era where our physical and virtual world will blur and businesses will adopt and mature technologies like 3D printing/scanning, sensor- or machine-to-machine-technologies or even cryptocurrencies (e.g. BitCoin). We should be watching out for the main innovators in the healthcare domain to show us the way into and through this era within the next few years.
  • Autonomous – to me – is the most compelling of those 6 business era models. According to Gartner it represents the final postnexus stage (which i.m.h.o. will change as evolution is ubiquitous and change is constant) and is characterized by organizations’ ability to “leverage technologies that provide humanlike or humanreplacing capabilities“. Enterprises having the capabilities to operate within this business era model will push innovative solutions of all kind, that allow normal day-2-day activity like driving cars, writing texts, understanding languages, assisting each other, … an automated – an autonomous – task.

When writing “Innovation doesn’t happen in IT” last year around the same time, I was overwhelmed by the fact, that we’re commencing to leave an age where IT was to be a discipline in itself. It is in these days, that we sense an even stronger move into IT being ubiquitous, the nexus of forces being felt in our every-day lifes and IT becoming servant of what’s really important.

I’m hoping for it being a humble servant!

 

(download the full Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Report here)

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(It’s) The End of the Cloud (as we know it)

“It’s the end of the world as we know it”, they say, “and I feel fine”. I do indeed. Things change. And change is always moving us and all around us. And in the best case it’s moving us forward.

So, let me start with a very moving (and maybe touching) statement:

 

“The Cloud has ended!
You can now stop talking about it.”

After about 5 years (if you think of the Middle-of-Europe geography – maybe some more in the US), the Cloud has finally come to its end. That’s great! Because eventually we can luckily move on to the really important things in our day-2-day IT life!

So – why is that? Why do I have the strong believe, that this hype is now finally over?

Some 5 years ago I participated in a panel discussion. And the main area it circulated on was whether Cloud can ever be secure or not – multi tenant or not – reliable or not – compliant or not. The panel discussion as such went quite well and eventually attendees of some real industry giants, like e.g. Siemens, for the first time felt assured that this was

 

The next Big Thing to Come …

And it was! Indeed! It remained to be perceived as the next big thing for the next – well – let’s say: 2 to 3 years.

That occasion back then was only one example – however – of how conversations went going forward. People lost themselves in arguments of security, compliance, controlability and segregatability of a cloudy, foggy and fuzzy monster which none could really grasp for a long time. Discussing these was just more easy than to understand the big advantages to come …

Still, it remained not only a hype but took its turn into our everyday life! Even more than that – Cloud Computing became the basis for what we today call the third IT revolution. And many talks today aim at spanning everybody’s perception regarding this revolution – one within our everyday lifes with IT being planted into any kind of small or big device – one within our industry lifes with production processes being shifted by 90° to create a complete new way of delivering applications – and eventually also a revolution for the big players as many of them might lose traction when remaining one foot on the platform, the other on the train for too long …

Soon after that panel discussion back in 2009, me and my then team entered the Windows Azure “Technology Adoption Program”. We created a first Cloud-based software distribution platform; you could compare it to those Systems Management architectures which have been very common for long in enterprise IT. By using Cloud patterns, we were able to address a broader reach and distribute more scalable and more flexible. Azure – back then – had its really major leaks and intensively improved down the path – together with fellow teams like ours who recommended changes and enhancements to the platform without end. Amazon – by that time – had already its place in the market. But what were they doing? Nothing more and nothing less than providing servers – more or less. Infrastructure-as-a-Service, it was called (question is: would you claim this to be disruptive today?).

Everybody talked about

 

The Big 3

Amazon, Microsoft and of course — ? — Google. Question: What’s one common thing of all 3 of them??

Exactly: All are US-based, spreading their capabilities over the world pretty quickly – backed by major investments – but still US-based. And every enterprise also back then knew: This was not going to work in compliancy to their respective country’s law or their anti trust regulatory.

So what remained the major discussion over years? Still? Security. Compliance. Controlability. Segregatability – still the same. Resentiments were omnipresent and the Big 3 kept having a hard time generating adoption of their brilliant new technologies (whereas admittedly Microsoft had the hardest time, because they leaked a $-rollin ecosystem such as brilliant search or brilliant book-sells).

Still, that Cloud-hype was not killable. Despite all concerns of private and public endavours, of small businesses and large enterprises, Cloud Computing remained and even strengthened its position as the basis for more to come: Technology ecosystems that evolved solely and purely because cloud took its turn into our everyday life and everyday enterprise IT.

And how couldn’t it?

How many of us are using eMail, some kind of file sharing facility, a social network of any kind? Anyone not using any remotely hosted collaboration product, authoring tools, design helpers – like the Adobe family – etc. etc. …

Who’s been using that within one’s work environment daily? For how long? 2 years, 3 years, …

We have all long ago started to enhance our day-2-day work experience by adding usefull little helpers into our IT-wise behaviour – sometimes without even noticing, into how far away premises we’re providing our data to. Haven’t we?

And many times we’ve all done that long before our enterprise IT provider offered us the same convenience, the same workforce enhancements from within our company’s premises. Either privately or even on our company PCs. Enterprise IT departments have been facing the worst time of their existence with sleepless nights for CIOs asking themselves the very same question ever and ever again: How the hell can I stop that Cloud thingy to happen to my enetrprise IT when it is so unsecure and uncompliant and at the same time, all my CxO’s are using it on their iPads? How can I adopt it without losing control completely.

Well – Ladies and Gentlemen – let me assure you: The nightmare has an end as it’s

 

The End of the Cloud as we know it!

(BTW: Ever had a look to a recent Gartner hypecycle and its positioning of “Cloud Computing”: They kept having it on the declinign edge for the last 2 years or so …) So I think we can rest assured: Our struggle is over.

But why? Why can a hype that big, that it managed to become the basis for all new and disruptive power in IT – social, mobile apps, data management and analytics – finally end?

Because it finally became utterly boring! Because it simply isn’t Cloud anymore, we’re talking about! Stop talking Cloud. Stop talking SaaS. It’s not retaining the importance it used to have. It has ceased to exist as a self-contained technology arguing its relevance by itself. It has ceased to exist on its own.

Hence – and here comes another good news – we’re now finally able to adopt this great new technology precisely for what we really neeed it: To accelerate and grow the businesses, which we – the IT guys amongst us – are bound to support. To integrate it into the devices we’re creating and stay as connected as needed. Or to accelerate our delivery into continuity. Or to simply consume the Services, we need to consume. Right now. Right as much and rapid as we need’em. And ultimately: To bridge the great IT systems we’ve all been managing for decades with the elasticity and scalability and accuracy of what was formerly called Cloud.

Let me talk you through a few examples:

  • Salesforce started in 2001. Claiming the decline of Software. They were facing the same concerns, the same weak adoption (at least in the beginning), the same hurdles for their entirely subscription based model. Today, Salesforce offers an ecosystem of products – even a platform to create your own: force.com – which are virtually friction-freely integrateable with your on-prem IT; mostly by just a few configurational mouseclicks. And a huge many enterprises trust Salesforce just enough to provide them one of their most critical business assets: their customer and opportunity data.
  • Or take user management: Many of today’s enterprises still struggle with providing their businesses a seamless login and authorization experience. At the same time, many roll out an identity provider which bridges on-prem IT systems with SaaS-provided systems and thereby offer a totally new single-sign-on experience not only within their on-prem IT. It’s a way of shifting – or even vanishing – the borders.
  • Or think of the most obvious of all examples: Infrastructure and Application Provisioning. Who has not yet introduced Virtualization in its IT? Every larger enterprise has, and the smaller ones leverage it from some out-of-prem providers. Finally, the technology that was formerly called “Cloud” has evolved into a level of maturity that it lives up to the promises of some earlier days: There’s means for you to control and manage your on-premise IT infrastructure seamlessly in a joint way with some Infrastructure provided – well – somewhere (I’m not stressing the word again).

However,

 

One Piece is Missing

One extensively important technology item that has the ability and purpose of glueing it all together: Automation. Or to be precise: Automation and Orchestration.

We are entering the era of Orchestration. We’re leaving the self-fullfilling technology-focussed island of pure “Cloud” behind us and can finally commence to create the really interesting stuff: By bridging our solidly designed and implemented IT systems and architectures with some even more solid, secure and reliable, scalable, elastic architectures, we are accelerating the business value of technology. We start to shift our thinking towards “Orchestration” and “Service”:

So, trust me: It’s the End of the Cloud as we know it! And we indeed can feel entirely fine about it. Security concerns have been addressed all the past years. Compliancy has been factored into vendor’s platforms – as has multi tenancy. And we are able to control where our data resides. Hence, the change can finally move on. We can stop talking “Cloud” as it became so boring as a standalone technology.

 

The Hype is Over

We’re entering the era of Orchestration – of Service Orchestration and entirely Service-based delivery. And Automation is the glue to make it happen. Automation is the glue between those valuable, well-defined, secure IT architectures and whole-new ecosystems of platforms – for the benefit of Service Orchestration.

So: Let us stop the “Cloud” talk. And start to

Automate to Orchestrate

 

 

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Innovation doesn’t happen in IT

The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2013 is out

And besides the obvious features of human-machine interaction it reveals especially one thing that became obvious already in recent years: Innovation doesn’t happen in IT anymore. No surprises, actually. It wouldn’t be called “The 3rd Industrial Revolution” if it was only IT to realize it.

The good news for you IT folks out there: IT is the lever, driver and realizer OF the revolution; take a thorough look at the Hype Cycle 2013 and find the emerging trends that are NOT based on the big topics of recent years: Cloud, Social, Mobile and BigData (Analytics).

Gartner – in the featured topics as well as in the report around – focusses very much on how trends and technologies change the way humans act, interact and live.

  • Augmenting humans with technology
  • Machines replacing humans
  • Machines and humans working alongside together

None of these three claimed mature trends of the coming years features IT as such in the way we’ve dealt with it in the 4 revolutionary topics from above. However, in all of them you may find traces and basis of them.

What’s the major surprises in the Hype Cycle?

  • Cloud Computing has still not reached the bottom? I think, Cloud is far further on the axis than represented here …
  • CEP is still quite high on the graph: My expectation is far quicker adoption and maturation of the matter than represented here …
  • I assumed Biometric Authentication Methods in the “less than 2 years” area …
  • Respectively the same for Mobile Health Monitoring

What’s the no-brainers?

  • Human Augmentation: To broad-a headline to really be qualified – yes, of course, it will be a trend – whatelse.
  • Autonomous Vehicles shows a constant climb. Rightly so. And it still’ll take time …
  • 3D Scanners as sort-of the “contra-answer” to 3D Printing
  • Big Data on the verve of maturation

What I really like on this year’s Hype Cycle is the fact that after we ITers have spent some years academically occupying ourselves with the major trends of the 3rd Industrial Revolution, after we’ve spent 100s of talks and presentations and 1000s of customer meetings, networking, webinars, blogs, … the whole story obviously bends back into the daily live reality of every human being. Every one of us – be it IT professional or else – will experience the change that the upcoming trends will bring into his life – probably unconcsiously …

I am looking forward to IT ceasing to be innovation and becoming the lever of innovation in all our daily life areas.

Eagerly awaiting your views on the Hype Cycle in the comments below.

Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013 (C) Gartner Inc.

Gartner’s 2013 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

Update: Found last years Hype Cycle in my archive and thought to add it for comparison …

Gartner Hype Cycle 2012

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